Stochastic Conditional Intensity Processes

In this article, we introduce the so-called stochastic conditionalintensity (SCI) model by extending Russell’s (1999) autoregressiveconditional intensity (ACI) model by a latent common dynamicfactor that jointly drives the individual intensity components.We show by simulations that the proposed model allows for awide range of (cross-)autocorrelation structures in multivariatepoint processes. The model is estimated by simulated maximumlikelihood (SML) using the efficient importance sampling (EIS)technique. By modeling price intensities based on NYSE trading,we provide significant evidence for a joint latent factor andshow that its inclusion allows for an improved and more parsimoniousspecification of the multivariate intensity process.     

浅议加强现代审计管理

由于审计在现代社会经济生活中的重要作用，对审计活动的管理也越来越重要。现代审计管理的核心是加强审计质量管理，加强审计质量管理的方法有分层质量控制法，关键点质量控制法，复查质量控制法，自查互查质量控制法。     

论流通观念创新

市场经济的实质和核心是交换经济、流通经济;流通不仅是中介,而且直接渗透到再生产的各个领域;流通不是地摊经济,现代流通也要运用高新技术,实现流通现代化;开放是流通的本质特征,市场经济的发达程度与流通的开放程度紧密相连;品牌本身是一种流通现象,品牌形象形成名牌和名牌经济,要在扩大对外开放中让中国自己的名牌走向世界。     

企业转让制度之比较研究

企业转让是指为了一定的营业目的通过签定合同将企业作为一个有机组织体的全部财产或部分重要财产进行有偿转让的活动。它是企业的所有权在不同的市场主体之间的移转,既不同于货物买卖也不同于企业财产的转让。企业转让制度在《德国商法典》、《日本商法典》和《韩国商法典》中都有专门规定,但在《澳门商法典》中规定的更为全面,主要涉及商号、债权债务关系、竞业禁止和劳动关系内容。建立企业转让制度是市场经济的内在体现,对我国发展经济和解决就业有着重要的现实意义,同时也符合我国建立现代产权制度的要求。     

论互联网与保险科技结合的重要性

随着互联网科技的快速发展,其影响力已深入市场经济的各个部分,保险行业依托云计算、大数据等互联网科学技术,不断推动自身发展。但在互联网科技时代,互联网保险行业也出现了诸多问题,有必要对这些问题进行探讨,并提出相应的指导策略。     

A Bayesian approach for more reliable tail risk forecasts

This paper demonstrates that existing quantile regression models used for jointly forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are sensitive to initial conditions. Given the importance of these measures in financial systems, this sensitivity is a critical issue. A new Bayesian quantile regression approach is proposed for estimating joint VaR and ES models. By treating the initial values as unknown parameters, sensitivity issues can be dealt with. Furthermore, new additive-type models are developed for the ES component that are more robust to initial conditions. A novel approach using the open-faced sandwich (OFS) method is proposed which improves uncertainty quantification in risk forecasts. Simulation and empirical results highlight the improvements in risk forecasts ensuing from the proposed methods.     

论加强和改进未成年人的思想道德建设

新世纪新阶段加强和改进未成年人思想道德建设已经成为当务之急。当前一要建立健全领导体制和工作机制,二要建立健全学校、家庭和社会"三结合"的未成年人思想道德教育体系。各方面应共同参与,同心协力,把握未成年人思想道德建设规律和特点,确定合适的内容,选择恰当的方式,积极开展有针对性的思想道德教育。     

Social networks in the global banking sector

We show that banks with shared social connections partner more often in the global syndicated loan market and that central banks in the network play dominant roles in various interbank transactions, indicating that social connections facilitate business connections. However, more centralized banks in the network also contribute significantly to the global systemic risk. Moreover, we find the soft information generated by social networks is particularly valuable when potential partners operate under different accounting and regulatory standards. Finally, we show that the recent banking crisis significantly limited the positive soft information effects of social networks in the global banking system.     

Modified efficient importance sampling for partially non‐Gaussian state space models

The construction of an importance density for partially non‐Gaussian state space models is crucial when simulation methods are used for likelihood evaluation, signal extraction, and forecasting. The method of efficient importance sampling is successful in this respect, but we show that it can be implemented in a computationally more efficient manner using standard Kalman filter and smoothing methods. Efficient importance sampling is generally applicable for a wide range of models, but it is typically a custom‐built procedure. For the class of partially non‐Gaussian state space models, we present a general method for efficient importance sampling. Our novel method makes the efficient importance sampling methodology more accessible because it does not require the computation of a (possibly) complicated density kernel that needs to be tracked for each time period. The new method is illustrated for a stochastic volatility model with a Student's t distribution.     

客户重要性与会计信息可比性 ——来自中国证券市场的经验证据

审计师的执业特征对被审计单位的会计信息质量有一定的影响。以审计师客户重要性为经,以会计信息可比性为纬,运用2005—2014年我国A股上市公司数据实证分析审计师客户重要性与会计信息可比性之间的相关性。实证结果表明：会计师事务所对某一客户的经济依赖越强,该客户的会计信息可比性越差;同样地,签字注册会计师的客户重要性与会计信息可比性呈现显著负向关系;并且,会计师事务所和签字注册会计师的客户重要性在对会计信息可比性的作用过程中存在互补关系。